How Trump and oil markets move together: a six-chart breakdown of their synchronized trends

By Muhammad MubashirPublished On 28 Mar 2026

It can be hard to pin down what is guiding Donald Trump a month into US and Israel's programme of strikes on Iran.

But it is clear he has an eye on the oil markets.

A word - or social media post - from the US president about his plans used to spark big moves in prices, as investors leaped on signs the conflict could escalate or come to an end.

But in recent days, traders appear to be growing more sceptical about the value of his comments.

Oil was trading at around $72 a barrel before 28 February, when the strikes on Iran began.

Last week it peaked at $118 a barrel on 19 March and as of Friday afternoon was sitting at just below $112 - significantly up from its pre-war price.

Here are some moments from the last month where Trump and the markets appear to have bounced off each other - with varying effects.